Reliance General Insurance Company (RGIC), a subsidiary of Reliance Capital, finds itself in a bind as the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI) has issued multiple Show Cause Notices (SCNs) amounting to Rs 922.6 crore. This development comes at a time when Reliance Capital is currently undergoing a debt resolution under the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) process in which the Hinduja group has emerged the winner. The Hinduja acquisition is currently awaiting the Supreme Court's approval after the Torrent group, the winner of the first round, challenged the second auction conducted by the lenders of Reliance Capital.
The equity cult has grown at a rapid pace in India in the last few years, with retail investors latching on to the stock markets like never before. At 126.6 million, the number of dematerialised (demat) accounts, where investors hold their securities in electronic form for trading purposes, are at record high levels. The growth rate, on an annualised basis, stood at 27 per cent in 2022-2023, up from barely 6 per cent a decade ago.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
Morgan Stanley has increased the target prices of certain information technology (IT) stocks by as much as 29 per cent, anticipating an improvement in earnings in the near future. Within the IT and engineering research and development (ER&D) services sector, it is now more optimistic about growth and margin estimates for 2024-25 (FY25).
India's biggest non-bank finance company, Bajaj Finance (BAF), is set to raise capital after a gap of four years. On October 5, the board of directors will meet to approve the fund raise by way of preferential issue and/or qualified institutional placement (QIP) subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The move, analysts said, comes ahead of expectations, and could be in the wake of simmering competition in the consumer lending space, especially with the launch of Jio Financial Services (Jio Fin). "While we still do not have finer details on the game-plan of Jio Financial, it has plans to initially foray into consumer and merchant lending.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
Fundraising via initial public offers (IPOs) dropped 52.2 per cent to $147.2 billion in the first eight months of calendar year 2023 (CY23), suggests a recent report by GlobalData, a London-based analytics and consulting company. At the country level, the report suggests, India topped the charts with 152 transactions worth $3.8 billion during this period, primarily due to a higher number of SME IPOs, followed by the US with 99 deals totaling $16 billion, while China ranked third with 88 transactions worth $32.3 billion. "An analysis of GlobalData's Deals Database reveals that there were 750 IPO listings registered with an aggregate deal value of $147.2 billion in the first eight months of 2023 on the stock exchanges worldwide.
Fiscal pressure for the Indian economy is gradually rising, suggested analysts at Jefferies in a recent note, as oil prices (Brent) - which are close to the $100 a barrel mark - continue to climb ahead of a busy election calendar. They added that the sharp rally in the equity markets during the last few months has made valuations costly. As a result, Jefferies expects the Indian markets to remain choppy in the near term.
Nirma has roped in BCG and KPMG to advise it on the fundraising options for the acquisition. The company had earlier informed banks that it would raise Rs 5,000 crore to Rs 7,000 crore in the current financial year for the acquisition. Bankers said the company will rely on its funds and future GLS dividend to repay its debt for acquisition.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
'The market should maintain optimism on the back of range-bound oil prices, a robust fiscal balance sheet, a better-than-expected monsoon, and moderating inflation.'
The sharp rally in the midcap stocks has made valuations expensive, and there is room for a correction, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest note to investors, GREED & fear. The midcap index, Wood said, now trades at 24.1x 12-month forward earnings compared with 18.7x for the Nifty. Rising crude oil prices, he believes, are another worry for India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its annual crude oil requirement.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
The outcome of the general elections, the Morgan Stanley note says, has enough firepower to sway the markets on either side.
Public-sector enterprise stocks have seen a good run thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the S&P BSE PSU Index surging by over 26 per cent during the period, compared to an 11 per cent increase in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
The promoter entities of JSW Group are in talks with several electric-car manufacturers in China to launch an electric car for the Indian market at Rs 15-20 lakh, a source close to the development said.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in India are expected to stay buoyant, seen over the last three-four years, despite a slowdown in the first seven months of the calendar year. "M&A is a lumpy business activity, and we may suddenly see large deals taking place during the next two quarters of the calendar year. "This would help maintain the streak of strong M&A activity.
In a dramatic turn of events in May 2019, an Emirates aircraft en-route to Dubai was asked to stop while it was taxiing for a take off in Mumbai. The pilot was given no reason and ordered to immediately return to the parking bay. As the aircraft returned to the terminal, two passengers from the first class - Naresh Goyal and his wife Anita - were offloaded by the immigration authorities, who said the duo cannot leave the country. Goyal, founder of Jet Airways, was stunned. The man, who ruled the aviation sector for two and a half decades with an iron hand, did not expect to be offloaded in this fashion.
'In case the El Nino pattern plays out negatively and/or the political situation becomes messy, we may see markets correcting and waiting for the situation to become clear by early/mid-2024.'
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